Successful trading requires understanding market trends and price movements. Learn how to analyze the Metin2 economy to predict profitable opportunities and maximize your Yang & Won returns.
Why Market Analysis Matters
Understanding the market gives you a competitive edge:
- Buy Before Demand Spikes: Anticipate events and stock up early
- Avoid Overpaying: Know when prices are inflated
- Timing is Everything: Sell at peak prices, buy at lows
- Risk Management: Avoid investing in declining markets
- Profit Maximization: 50-200% better returns with good timing
Price Tracking Methods
Method 1: Manual Price Recording
Track prices daily to identify trends.
Create a Price Spreadsheet:
| Date | Item | Low Price | High Price | Avg Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | +7 Sword | 15M | 22M | 18M |
| Oct 8 | +7 Sword | 18M | 25M | 21M |
Track 5-10 popular items weekly. Spot trends after 2-3 weeks of data.
💡 Pro Tip: Use Google Sheets with your guild members - pool data collection. More data points = better market understanding.
Method 2: Chat Monitoring
Watch trade chat for real-time price discovery.
- WTS Messages: What prices are sellers asking?
- WTB Messages: What are buyers willing to pay?
- Quick Sales: If item sells in <5 minutes, price was too low
- Long Listings: If item sits for hours, price too high
- Negotiation Patterns: How much do people haggle?
Method 3: Shop Surveys
Visit marketplace and record shop prices.
Daily Survey Routine (15 minutes):
- Visit Map1 marketplace at same time daily (e.g., 8pm)
- Check 20-30 shops selling your target items
- Record lowest, highest, and median prices
- Note which items sold out (high demand indicator)
- Check same time next day to track trends
Market Cycles & Patterns
Weekly Cycle
📉 Low Price Days (Mon-Thu)
- • Lower player activity
- • Less demand = lower prices
- • Strategy: BUY
- • Best: Monday 2pm-6pm
📈 High Price Days (Fri-Sun)
- • Peak player activity
- • High demand = higher prices
- • Strategy: SELL
- • Best: Saturday 8pm-11pm
Example: +8 weapon costs 80M Monday afternoon, 95M Saturday evening. Buy Monday, sell Saturday = 15M profit (18.75% return) with zero effort.
Event-Driven Price Changes
Server events dramatically impact prices.
🎉 Before Event (1-2 days early):
- • Upgrade materials spike +30-50%
- • Consumables (potions, buffs) +20-40%
- • Action: SELL materials, BUY equipment
⚔️ During Event:
- • Peak consumable prices (+50-80%)
- • Equipment demand drops
- • Action: SELL consumables, BUY equipment cheap
📉 After Event:
- • Materials crash -40-60%
- • Equipment recovers to normal
- • Action: BUY materials cheap, SELL equipment
Seasonal Trends
- Summer (June-Aug): Lower activity, prices drop 10-20%
- Winter (Dec-Feb): High activity, prices peak +15-30%
- New Updates: Old items crash, new items overpric ed initially
- School Holidays: More players = higher demand
Supply & Demand Analysis
Identifying Supply Levels:
Low Supply
- • <5 shops selling item
- • Sells within hours
- • Price rising weekly
- • Action: BUY & HOLD
Normal Supply
- • 10-20 shops selling
- • Sells in 1-2 days
- • Stable prices
- • Action: Normal trading
Oversupply
- • 30+ shops selling
- • Takes days to sell
- • Prices dropping
- • Action: AVOID
Advanced Indicators
Guild Activity Indicator
Active guilds = healthy economy
- 50+ active guilds: Strong market, good for trading
- Guild war frequency: More wars = more consumable demand
- Recruitment spam: Growing population = rising prices
Server Population Trends
Population directly impacts Yang & Won value
- Growing: Prices rise 2-5% monthly - buy & hold
- Stable: Predictable cycles - trade normally
- Declining: Prices fall 5-10% monthly - avoid long-term holds
Update Announcements
Official updates cause market disruption
- New dungeon announced: Related items spike +50-200%
- Balance changes: Affected class equipment volatility
- New items coming: Old similar items lose 20-40% value
- Level cap increase: Max-level gear demand drops
Practical Market Analysis Example
📊 Case Study: Profitable Event Trading
Monday: Event Announced (Guild War Weekend)
• Notice: Server announces big guild war event this Saturday
• Action: Buy 200 HP potions @ 300k each = 60M investment
Tuesday-Thursday: Build Position
• Prices slowly rising: 300k → 350k → 400k
• Action: Buy 100 more @ 400k = 40M more (100M total invested)
Friday-Saturday: Peak Demand
• Players buying for event: 400k → 550k → 600k
• Action: Sell 300 potions @ 580k average = 174M revenue
Result:
• Investment: 100M
• Revenue: 174M
• Profit: 74M (74% return in 5 days!)
Market Analysis Checklist
Before Every Major Trade:
- ☐ Tracked price for 7+ days (know the trend)
- ☐ Checked supply (how many shops selling?)
- ☐ Identified demand (how fast does it sell?)
- ☐ Considered day of week (Mon = cheap, Sat = expensive)
- ☐ Checked for upcoming events (price spikes coming?)
- ☐ Reviewed server announcements (updates affecting item?)
- ☐ Confirmed profit margin (15%+ after market fees)
- ☐ Have exit strategy (how will I sell this?)
⚠️ Common Analysis Mistakes
- ❌ Trusting single data point: One low price doesn't mean trend
- ❌ Ignoring volume: Price means nothing if no one's buying
- ❌ Missing event calendars: Predictable spikes = easy profit
- ❌ Not tracking competitors: Top traders dictate market
- ❌ Emotional decisions: Data > gut feeling always
🎓 Master Trader Secret
Top 1% traders spend 30 minutes daily on market analysis, 30 minutes actually trading. The analysis makes them 200-500% more profitable than traders who just "wing it."
Time investment: 3.5 hours/week on analysis = 50-100M extra profit weekly = €3-5 real value. Better hourly rate than most real jobs!
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